A Comprehensive Metric for Assessing Sanitary and Epidemiological Well-Being as an Indicator of Potential Human Health Risks

Introduction: Conventional approaches to assessing the sanitary and epidemiological status based on discrete analysis of heterogeneous environmental factors fail to fully consider a complex nature of their impact given uncertainty of available data, variability, and combined exposures. This logically creates a systemic limitation that reduces the accuracy of predicting human health risks as well as effectiveness and efficiency of preventive measures. The relevance of the study is attributed to the necessity of improving instruments for assessing sanitary and epidemiological well-being under dynamic changes in economic and sociodemographic factors.

Objective: To develop a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of potential human health risks based on integrated heterogeneous environmental health data using the apparatus of fuzzy set theory.

Materials and Methods: Within this study, we performed systemic and hygienic analyses, employed mathematical modeling (the fuzzy set theory) and health risk assessment. We conducted a retrospective study of data retrieved from Rospotrebnadzor’s official reports covering 65 benchmark indicators describing quality and safety of environmental media (ambient air, drinking water, and soils), occupational conditions, etc., for 2014–2023.

Results: We developed methodical approaches to calculating a comprehensive metric of total potential health risk (R) from violations of sanitary and epidemiological well-being, which allow grouping of areas by five risk categories, from negligible to very high. Application of the fuzzy set theory made it possible to formalize and consider data uncertainty and variability of factors and ensured reliable and representative assessment. Methodology testing in three Russian regions (Tambov Region (R = 0.34), Krasnoyarsk Krai (R = 0.57), and Perm Krai (R = 0.43)) proved the consistency of estimates with observed levels of environmental pollution, thus confirming its validity.

Conclusions: The developed methodology is a new stage in updating the conventional hygienic monitoring ensuring its transformation into a prognostic system able to adapt to dynamic changes in environmental factors and preventive risk management.

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