Anthrax Risk Assessment for the Sverdlovsk Region Using Multivariate Analysis and Geoinformation Technologies

Introduction: Anthrax remains relevant due to the almost ubiquitous spread in the Russian Federation of anthrax stationary hazardous areas and soil foci. The Sverdlovsk Region is distinguished by large anthrax epizootics in the past.

Objective: To assess anthrax risks based on ranking results using optimized methodology of multiple factor analysis and geoinformation technologies in the Sverdlovsk Region.

Materials and methods: The archival and updated data on anthrax by the Sverdlovsk Regional Office of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing were examined. The administrative territories of the region were ranked using a previously developed multivariate analysis technique based on the determination of the rank values of characteristics of the stationary hazardous areas (R_1-8) and supplemented by a correction factor to ∑R_1-8, the values of which depend on the number of the intra-subject administrative territories. The introduced adjustment makes it possible to unify the ranking methodology and compare the risks of infection in the regions of Russia.

Results: In 58 % of the administrative territories of the region, low and medium anthrax risks were established in the presence of high-risk territories (42 %), mostly in the south and east of the region. The location of high-risk territories and up to 70 % of stationary hazardous sites correlates with natural zones favorable for the pathogen (gray forest, floodplain soils in broad-leaved, forest-steppe landscapes, etc.).

Conclusions: In recent decades, the Sverdlovsk Region has been characterized by relative well-being in terms of anthrax despite the presence its risk factors. The ranking results will ensure better efficiency of epidemiological surveillance of this infection.

1. Ryazanova AG, Skudareva ON, Gerasimenko DK, et al. Analysis of the epizootiological and epidemiological situation on anthrax in the world in 2023, the forecast for 2024 in the Russian Federation. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsiy. 2024;(3):35-41. (In Russ.) doi: 10.21055/0370-1069-2024-3-35-41

2. Popova AYu, Ezhlova EB, Demina YuV, et al. Ways to improve the epidemiological surveillance and control of anthrax in the Russian Federation. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsiy. 2017;(1):84-88. (In Russ.) doi: 10.21055/0370-1069-2017-1-84-88

3. Marinin LI, Dyatlov IA, Shishkova NA, Firstova VV. [Anthrax: Yesterday and Today.] Moscow: Dynasty Publ.; 2021. (In Russ.)

4. Rodionov AP, Artemeva EA, Melnikova LA, Kosarev MA, Ivanova SV. Features of anthrax natural foci and Bacillus anthracis ecology. Veterinary Science Today. 2021;(2(37)): 151-158. doi: 10.29326/2304-196X-2021-2-37-151-158

5. Dugarzhapova ZF, Chesnokova MV, Ivanova TА, Kosilko SA, Balakhonov SV. Improvement of methodical approaches to investigation of anthrax burials and animal burial sites. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsiy. 2019;(4):41-47. (In Russ.) doi: 10.21055/0370-1069-2019-4-41-47

6. Iglovsky SA, Kriauciunas VV. Anthrax cattle burials as a potential threat caused by changes in cryolite zones in the Northern European part of Russia. Health Risk Analysis. 2021;(1):108-114. doi: 10.21668/health.risk/2021.1.11.eng

7. Dzhupina SI. [Characteristics of the epizootic outbreak of anthrax in the Sverdlovsk Region in 1979.] Veterinarnaya Patologiya. 2004;(3(10)):66-72. (In Russ.)

8. Marinin LI, Onishchenko GG, Kravchenko TB, et al. [Anthrax in Humans: Epidemiology, Prevention, Diagnostics, Treatment. Moscow: GIGIENA Publ.; 2008. (In Russ.)

9. Meselson M, Guillemin J, Hugh-Jones M, et al. The Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak of 1979. Science. 1994;266(5188):1202-1208. doi: 10.1126/science.7973702

10. Sahl JW, Pearson T, Okinaka R, et al. A Bacillus anthracis genome sequence from the Sverdlovsk 1979 autopsy specimens. mBio. 2016;7(5):e01501-e01516. doi: 10.1128/mBio.01501-16

11. Balmer B. Intelligence, ignorance, and diplomacy in the Cold War: The UK reaction to the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak. JHoK. 2021;2(1):9. doi: 10.5334/jhk.44

12. Ashiq HT, Khan B, Anjum A, et al. Bacillus anthracis: A bioterrorism agent. In: Abbas RZ, Saeed NM, Younus M, Aguilar-Marcelino L, Khan A, eds. One Health Triad. Faisalabad, Pakistan: Unique Scientific Publishers; 2023;2:34-40. doi: 10.47278/book.oht/2023.38

13. Zhang P, MacIntyre CR, Chen X, Chughtai AA. Application of the modified Grunow-Finke risk assessment tool to the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak of 1979. Mil Med. 2024;usae289. doi: 10.1093/milmed/usae289

14. Sheneni VD, Akomolafe AP. Anthrax: A global health concern. Int J Curr Res Chem Pharm Sci. 2023;10(7):14-31. doi: 10.22192/ijcrcps.2023.10.07.003

15. Raichich SR, Saburova SA, Shabeikin AA, Simonova EG. Assessment of the situation on anthrax based on ranking territories by the degree of risk. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsiy. 2020;(4):125-132. (In Russ.) doi: 10.21055/0370-1069-2020-4-125-132

16. Chekanova TA, Loktionova MN, Petremgvdlishvili K, Ladnyi VI, Akimkin VG. The contribution of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology to the improvement of the system of epizootological and epidemiological surveillance for anthrax in the Russian Federation. Epidemiologiya i Infektsionnye Bolezni. Aktual’nye Voprosy. 2023;13(2):9-13. (In Russ.) doi: 10.18565/epidem.2023.13.2.9-13

17. Shabeikin AA, Chekanova TA, Belimenko VV, Lopunov SV. The factors analysis determining the modern anthrax epizootic process in the Russian Federation. Trudy Kubanskogo Gosudarstvennogo Agrarnogo Universiteta. 2024;(112):283-291. (In Russ.) doi: 10.21515/1999-1703-112-283-291

18. Dugarzhapova ZF, Ivacheva MA, Chesnokova MV, et al. Anthrax in Primorsky Territory (1919-2020). Communication 2. Episootiological-epidemiological situation and zoning of administrative territories. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsiy. 2021;(4):67-78. (In Russ.) doi: 10.21055/0370-1069-2021-4-67-78

19. Logvin FV, Kulichenko AN, Buravtseva NP, et al. Development of a procedure for ranking the administrative territories in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation according to the degree of risk for complicating the epizootiological and epidemiological situation of anthrax on the basis of multivariate analysis. Epidemiologiya i Infektsionnye Bolezni. Aktual’nye Voprosy. 2022;12(4):26-33. (In Russ.) doi: 10.18565/epidem.2022.12.4.26-33

20. Simonova EG, Shabeikin AA, Raichich SR, et al. Geoinformation technologies for assessing epizootologic and epidemiologic situation with anthrax. Health Risk Analysis. 2019;(3):74-82. doi: 10.21668/health.risk/2019.3.09.eng

21. Kaurova ZG, Mkrtchyan LA, Mkrtchyan ME, et al. Application in epizootological mapping of environmental information. Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskoy Gosudarstvennoy Akademii Veterinarnoy Meditsiny im. N.E. Baumana. 2022;251(3):141-149. (In Russ.) doi: 10.31588/2413_4201_1883_3_251_141

22. Sarskov SA, Vyushkov MV, Polyanina AV, Slavin SL, Zaitseva NN. GIS software package “Epidemiological Atlas of Russia” on current infectious diseases. Sovremennye Tekhnologii v Meditsine. 2023;15(6):22-30. (In Russ.) doi: 10.17691/stm2023.15.6.03

23. Buravtseva NP, Mesentsev VM, Ryazanova АG, et al. Use of geographic information systems for creation of electronic database of anthrax burial sites in the Stavropol Territory. Problemy Osobo Opasnykh Infektsiy. 2019;(4):31-36. (In Russ.) doi: 10.21055/0370-1069-2019-4-31-36

24. Carlson CJ, Kracalik IT, Ross N, et al. The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife. Nat Microbiol. 2019;4(8):1337-1343. doi: 10.1038/s41564-019-0435-4

25. Driciru M, Rwego IB, Ndimuligo SA, et al. Environmental determinants influencing anthrax distribution in Queen Elizabeth Protected Area, Western Uganda. PLoS One. 2020;15(8):e0237223. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237223