Methodological Approaches to Quantification of Human Health Risks Posed by Meteorological Factors Using Heat Waves as an Example

Introduction: Weather factors, including increasingly frequent heat waves, can raise human health risks.

Objective: To propose methodological approaches allowing quantitative assessment of health risk levels related to exposure to meteorological factors using heat waves as an example.

Materials and methods: The methodological approaches were developed based on conceptual provisions of the health risk assessment methodology and Russian Guidelines MR 2.1.10.0057–12, Assessment of risk and damage from climate changes that increase morbidity and mortality rates in at-risk populations. They were then tested on heat waves using air temperatures registered in the city of Perm from January 01, 1992 to December 31, 2022 and respiratory and circulatory disease incidence rates observed in 2010–2022.

Results: Approaches to assessing human health risks posed by weather factors are described. They include priority setting criteria, description of exposures, formulas for calculating their levels and health risks given the severity of outcomes, and the rating scale. The results of testing the approach using data on 2010 heat wave in Perm showed that the total risk for the child population associated with respiratory diseases was 2.66 × 10–6; those for the adults and attributed to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases – 2.34 × 10–8 and 6.66 × 10–7, respectively; and those for the elderly population and related to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases were 1.81 × 10–6 and 1.03 × 10–5, respectively. The lifetime risks were ranked as minimal and acceptable.

Conclusions: The suggested approaches facilitate quantitative assessment of risks posed by meteorological exposures taking into account severity of likely health outcomes and determination of their acceptability.

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