Pogorelov AR. Regional differences in the spread of pneumonia in Russia: A comparative spatiotemporal analysis of the situation in 2017–2021

Introduction: Pneumonia remains a respiratory disease of concern that keeps influencing morbidity and mortality throughout the world in the 21st century. Increased incidence rates of pneumonia have been registered in Russia for a long time. In this regard, regional surveillance seems relevant across the country for a better understanding of recent spatial differences in the disease spread and their fluctuations.

Objective: To carry out a spatiotemporal analysis of regional differences in pneumonia prevalence in the adult population of Russia in 2017–2021 with a focus on pre- and COVID-19 pandemic periods, given the Russian long-term dynamics for 2010–2022.

Materials and methods: The study covers the years 2017–2021 with sufficient data on pneumonia prevalence collected. Static and dynamic parameters were calculated for the compared pre- and pandemic periods. A series of cartograms developed using GIS tools made it possible to visualize the information obtained and assess the spatiotemporal situation of the process under study.

Results: The long-term dynamics of pneumonia prevalence rates in the adult population in Russia was examined with the regional trends in 2017–2021 assessed. In 2017–2019, they rose in most regions of Russia but the growth rate did not exceed 30 %. In 2019–2021, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the pneumonia situation changed dramatically and the disease rates increased in most regions. A significant deterioration of the situation was observed in most of the European part of Russia with the growth rates ranging from 70 % to 90 %. The number of regions with a null increase in the pneumonia prevalence dropped from 25 to five.

Conclusions: Changes in the regional differences in the disease prevalence in the adult population of Russia for 2017–2021 were assessed. The uneven interregional spread of pneumonia complicated during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period. Increased growth rates of the disease prevalence of varying intensity were observed in 80 Russian regions.

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