Breast cancer mortality in the Primorsky Region: Data analysis and modeling
https://doi.org/10.35627/2219-5238/2021-29-11-16-22
Abstract
Introduction: In the Primorsky Region, there is a steady upward trend in breast cancer morbidity and mortality. Lifestyle, material wellbeing, availability and timeliness of receiving medical care, along with genetic predisposition, have a significant impact on life expectancy and mortality of cancer patients, which is of great importance for public health, especially when developing a strategy to improve the quality of life and health status of the population.
Objective: The study aimed to analyze the situation and to develop a model for mortality prediction based on breast cancer prevalence rates and socio-economic indicators of the population of the Primorsky Region.
Materials and methods: The study was carried out based on data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Medical Information Analytical Center of the Primorsky Region for 1994–2019. Correlation analysis was used to analyze statistical data and the prediction model was developed using artificial neural networks.
Results: In 2000–2019, there was a rise in breast cancer mortality by 39.13 % in the region. The statistical analysis of the relationship between socio-economic indicators and the mortality rate showed significant correlations, which were further used for the development of a neural network model. We observed that predictions were most influenced by parameters of material well-being and health care quality.
Conclusion: The established relationships prove the necessity of considering them when designing management decisions aimed to increase life expectancy and improve the quality of life in breast cancer patients.
Supporting agencies: The work was carried out as part of state task No. 0202-2019-0009. Topic: Development of advance methods and technologies for creating intelligent information and control systems
About the Authors
M. Z. Ermolitskaya
Institute of Automation and Control Processes; Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Marina Z. Ermolitskaya, Cand. Sci. (Biol.), Associate Professor; Senior Researcher, Laboratory of Information, Analytical and Control Systems and Technologies
5 Radio Street, Vladivostok, 690041, Russian Federation
41 Gogol Street, Vladivostok, 690014, Russian Federation
P. F. Kiku
School of Medicine, Far Eastern Federal University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Pavel F. Kiku, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor, Head of the Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
10 Ajax Village, Russky Island, Vladivostok, 690922, Russian Federation
A. I. Abakumov
Institute of Automation and Control Processes
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Aleksandr I. Abakumov, Dr. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Professor; Head of the Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling of Biophysical Processes
5 Radio Street, Vladivostok, 690041, Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Ermolitskaya M.Z., Kiku P.F., Abakumov A.I. Breast cancer mortality in the Primorsky Region: Data analysis and modeling. Public Health and Life Environment – PH&LE. 2021;29(11):16-22. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.35627/2219-5238/2021-29-11-16-22
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