Spatial Cluster Prioritization Analysis of the Distribution of Combinations of Hazardous Air Pollutants in the Regions of the Russian Federation

Introduction: The territory of the Russian Federation is characterized by a significant number of industrial enterprises, all emitting hazardous air pollutants. The study of spatial distribution of their combinations is relevant for identifying regional characteristics and areas at risk of their spread and human exposure.

 Objective: To conduct a spatial cluster prioritization analysis of the distribution of combinations of hazardous airborne chemicals in the regions of the Russian Federation.

 Materials and methods: The analysis included clustering of the regions by vectors that determine economic development and health of the local population; establishing the optimal number of clusters and comprised regions using the elbow method and k-means. The dynamics of non-compliant ambient air samples was assessed based on data of Rosstat Reporting Form No. 18 for 2014–2024 collected and processed by the Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing. Criteria for priority setting included hazard class 1 or 2 of the chemical, its mode of action, and the proportion of exceedances.

Results: We identified five clusters consisting of two to 32 regions having similar characteristics. Large-scale distribution of combinations of airborne chemicals with uneven local zones was established in 59 regions, mainly of the third and fifth clusters, inhabited by almost 66.3 % of the population of the country. The maximum (up to 6.2-fold) increase in the frequency of non-compliant air samples with threshold exceedances of benzo[a]pyrene, fluorine, and oxides of aluminum, copper, and manganese was established in the Sverdlovsk, Kemerovo, Chelyabinsk, and Irkutsk regions, Altai, Krasnoyarsk, and Perm territories.

 Conclusions: We identified clusters comprising 59 densely populated regions with local zones of distribution of two to seven combinations of hazardous air pollutants and a significant proportion of exceedances reaching 20.9 %. Priority was given to seven regions requiring urgent regulatory measures to prevent and mitigate adverse health effects in the exposed population.

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