Analysis of Long-Term Dynamics and Age Structure of Pneumonia Incidence in the Population of St. Petersburg

Introduction: Pneumonia is one of the most important health problems due to its high incidence. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp increase in the number of pneumonia cases among adults.

Objective: To study pneumonia incidence rates among different age groups of the population and to establish their main trends in St. Petersburg.

Materials and methods: We used data contained in the Federal Statistical Observation Form No. 12, “Information on the number of diseases registered in patients living in the service area of a health facility” for 2011–2022 to calculate pneumonia incidence rates and establish the statistical significance of differences between the indicators, to do a retrospective epidemiological analysis with an assessment of long-term dynamics among the general population and in different age groups using methods of descriptive and inductive parametric statistics.

Results: Adults prevailed in the age structure of pneumonia cases (85.3 %), among whom the proportion of elderly people was higher (45.8 %). In 2011–2019, pneumonia incidence in the general population of St. Petersburg dropped by 31.3 %. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it demonstrated a 3.3-fold increase from 291.9 to 976.0 per 100,000 population (t = 107.0, p < 0.05). Pneumonia incidence among elderly people was statistically higher (1,578.8 per 100,000 population, p < 0.05). A decline in pneumonia rates in the pediatric population (ages 0–17) was observed in 2020–2021. In 2022, a decrease in pneumonia incidence rates was registered among both the general and adult population of St. Petersburg by 61.5 % and 64.9 %, respectively.

Conclusions: Monitoring of long-term changes in pneumonia incidence in St. Petersburg showed a decrease in its rates in 2011–2019 with a subsequent marked increase, especially among elderly people. This population group requires special attention when implementing management decisions in healthcare at the regional level.

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