sredobЗдоровье населения и среда обитания – ЗНиСОPublic Health and Life Environment – PH&LE2219-52382619-0788ФБУЗ ФЦГиЭ Роспотребнадзора10.35627/2219-5238/2021-336-3-70-77sredob-587Research ArticleЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЯEPIDEMIOLOGYВлияние метеорологических факторов на заболеваемость и смертность COVID-19 в Москве в апреле–июне 2020 годаEffects of Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Moscow in April–June 2020https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8125-0890КривошеевВ. В.KrivosheevV. V.

Кривошеев Владимир Васильевич – ведущий эксперт

ул. Промышленная, 19, г. Ханты-Мансийск, 628011

Vladimir V. Krivosheev, Leading expert

19 Promyshlennaya Street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628011

Vvk_usu@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2517-9775СтоляровА. И.StolyarovA. I.

Столяров Артем Игоревич – директор

ул. Промышленная, 19, г. Ханты-Мансийск, 628011

Artem I. Stolyarov, Director

19 Promyshlennaya Street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628011

tp@tp86.ruАвтономное учреждение Ханты-Мансийского автономного округа – Югры «Технопарк высоких технологий»РоссияHigh Technology ParkRussian Federation202120072021037077Copyright © Кривошеев В.В., Столяров А.И., 20212021Кривошеев В.В., Столяров А.И.Krivosheev V.V., Stolyarov A.I.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://zniso.fcgie.ru/jour/article/view/587

Введение. Выполнен обзор вопроса о влиянии климатических факторов на заболеваемость и смерт­ность в связи с пандемией COVID-19. Собраны данные о заболеваемости и смертности жителей г. Москвы в период первой волны пандемии с 1 апреля по 25 июня 2020 года и данные о климатических параметрах в период с 1 января по 25 июня 2020 года. Проведен корреляционный анализ зависимостей заболеваемости и смертности населения Москвы от среднесуточных значений ряда метеорологических факторов: атмос­ферного давления, относительной и абсолютной влажности атмосферного воздуха, температуры воздуха, скорости ветра, количества осадков. Проведенные расчеты позволили получить новые научные знания о влиянии климата на динамику пандемии COVID-19. С высокой степенью достоверности доказано, что климатические факторы на территории г. Москвы оказывают значительное влияние на уровень заболева­емости и смертности в связи с COVID-19. Степень влияния климатических факторов на уровень заболевае­мости незначительно выше степени влияния этих факторов на уровень смертности. Наибольшее влияние на уровень заболеваемости и смертности жителей г. Москвы в связи с пандемией COVID-19 оказывают атмосферное давление и скорость ветра, а наименьшее влияние – температура атмосферного воздуха и количество осадков. Коэффициенты корреляции на уровне 0,50–0,70 позволяют с высокой надежностью утверждать, что климатические факторы начинают оказывать влияние на уровень заболеваемости и смертности населения г. Москвы еще за 6–8 недель до появления первых симптомов. На основании эм­пирических данных определено, что наиболее вероятный период времени между регистрацией момента заболевания и смерти пациентов, заболевших COVID-19, находится в пределах от 8,63 до 22,13 суток, в среднем 12,63 суток. Полученные нами статистические закономерности демонстрируют высокую сходи­мость с реальными данными, они фактическими подтверждены примерами из международной практики, позволяют определить степень влияния метеорологических условий на конечные результаты пандемии COVID-19 в разные периоды времени и делать прогнозы относительно времени наступления периодов наиболее опасной эпидемиологической обстановки на территории г. Москвы, что делает возможным опе­ративно принимать необходимые меры профилактического характера.

Summary. We studied the impact of meteorological factors including atmospheric pressure, relative and absolute humidity, air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation quantity on COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates in Moscow during the first wave of the pandemic from 1st April to 25th June 2020 using a correlation analysis. The calculations created new scientific knowledge about the effects of fluctuations in average daily values of weather parameters on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and demonstrated their statistical significance. We es­tablished that meteorological factors had a greater influence on the incidence than on mortality from the novel coronavirus disease. Atmospheric pressure and wind speed had the strongest effect on incidence and mortality rates of Muscovites while air temperature and precipitation quantity demonstrated the least impact. Correlation coefficients of 0.50–0.70 enabled us to assert that the meteorological factors start influencing the incidence and mortality 6 to 8 weeks before the disease onset. Based on empirical data, we also estimated that the most likely period between the disease onset and death of COVID-19 patients ranged from 8.63 to 22.13 days, the average be­ing 12.63 days. The resulting statistical patterns demonstrate high convergence with actual data and international experience and allow determination of the degree of influence of meteorological conditions on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in different periods and prognosis of the worst scenarios in the city enabling appropriate and timely preventive measures.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.