sredobЗдоровье населения и среда обитания – ЗНиСОPublic Health and Life Environment – PH&LE2219-52382619-0788ФБУЗ ФЦГиЭ Роспотребнадзора10.35627/2219-5238/2021-335-2-61-69sredob-472Research ArticleЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЯEPIDEMIOLOGYВлияние относительной влажности воздуха на заболеваемость коронавирусом COVID-19Impact of Relative Humidity on COVID-19 Incidencehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8125-0890КривошеевВ. В.KrivosheevV. V.

Кривошеев Владимир Васильевич – ведущий эксперт 

ул. Промышленная, д. 19, г. Ханты-Мансийск, 628011

Vladimir V. Krivosheev, Leading expert

19 Promyshlennaya Street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628011

Vvk_usu@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2517-9775СтоляровА. И.StolyarovA. I.

Столяров Артем Игоревич – директор

ул. Промышленная, д. 19, г. Ханты-Мансийск, 628011

Artem I. Stolyarov, Director

19 Promyshlennaya Street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628011

 

tp@tp86.ruАвтономное учреждение Ханты-Мансийского автономного округа – Югры «Технопарк высоких технологий»РоссияHigh Technology ParkRussian Federation202120042021026169Copyright © Кривошеев В.В., Столяров А.И., 20212021Кривошеев В.В., Столяров А.И.Krivosheev V.V., Stolyarov A.I.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://zniso.fcgie.ru/jour/article/view/472Введение

Введение. Проблема влияния внешних факторов, к которым относятся и метеорологические условия, на динамику развития пандемии коронавируса чрезвычайно актуальна, поскольку понимание физических основ любого процесса позволяет прогнозировать его результаты в конкретных условиях и, в определенной степени, управлять этим процессом.

С целью оценки влияния относительной влажности воздуха на заболеваемость коронавирусом COVID-19 проведен анализ существующих в международном научном сообществе представлений о характере и степени влияния метеорологических условий на уровень заболеваемости человека COVID-19. Материалы и методы. Разработана оригинальная методика, позволяющая определять, в какие периоды времени уровень влажности атмосферного воздуха оказывал влияние на заболеваемость человека, какие отрезки времени разделяют эти периоды с моментом обнаружения заболевания, а также рассчитать, насколько сильно влияла влажность воздуха на процесс инфицирования и течение заболевания. Для исключения влияния побочных эффектов на корректность результатов исследований использована авторская методика расчета условной заболеваемости как разницы между теоретическим и фактическим уровнями.

В статье приводятся результаты корреляционного анализа зависимостей между относительной влажностью воздуха и показателями динамики инфицирования человека коронавирусом COVID-19 по материалам девятнадцати регионов Российской Федерации. Все без исключения уравнения содержат два или три экстремума уровня заболеваемости по времени, в которые влажность воздуха оказывала наибольшее влияние на конечный результат заболеваемости. Эти экстремумы авторы связывают с моментами инфицирования и проявления заболеваемости пациента, что позволяет делать предположения о количественном прогнозировании продолжительности инкубационного периода в различных атмосферных условиях.

Вывод

Вывод. Получены аналитические зависимости, позволяющие определить благоприятную и неблагоприятную относительную влажность воздуха для инфицирования человека COVID-19 для различных регионов Российской Федерации. Математическими методами подтвержден тезис о возможной продолжительности жизни коронавируса, превышающей две недели, во внешней среде.

Introduction

Introduction: The issue of the influence of external factors such as meteorological conditions on the dynamics of the coronavirus pandemic is extremely relevant, since understanding of physical foundations of any process helps predict its results in specific conditions and, to a certain extent, manage it.

Objective

Objective: In order to assess the effect of relative humidity on the incidence of COVID-19, we analyzed opinions of the international scientific community about the nature and degree of the influence of meteorological conditions on COVID-19 incidence rates in humans.

 Materials and methods

 Materials and methods: We developed an original method of determining the periods of time when the air humidity level influenced disease rates, establishing the lag and the power of influence of the relative air humidity on the infection process and course of the disease. To eliminate the effect of confounders on research results, we applied the author’s method of estimating the conditional incidence as the difference between the theoretical and observed rates.

The article presents the results of analyzing the correlation between relative humidity and COVID-19 incidence rates in 19 regions of the Russian Federation. Without exception, all the equations contained two or three extrema of the incidence in time, at which air humidity had the greatest impact on its rates. We associate these extrema with the time of getting infected and the disease onset and they enable us to quantitatively predict the latent period of this infectious disease in different atmospheric conditions.

Conclusion

Conclusion: The observed correlations demonstrate relative humidity levels posing higher and lower risks of getting infected with COVID-19 in various regions of the Russian Federation. By means of mathematical methods, we confirmed the hypothesis about the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in the environment for more than two weeks.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.